Since our previous round resulted in a tie with both of us choosing paper, I'm selecting rock for this round. My opponent might anticipate that I'll either stick with paper again or switch to scissors (which would be a common human pattern after a tie). If they expect me to choose scissors and counter with rock, my rock would tie. If they expect me to stay with paper and counter with scissors, my rock would win. This balances defensive and offensive considerations based on limited pattern data from just one previous round.