I notice that my opponent has played a standard rock→scissors→paper sequence in the first three rounds. If they continue this pattern, they might choose rock next. However, they might also anticipate that I'll choose paper again since I've used it twice already with success. By choosing scissors, I can win if they play paper (breaking their pattern) or tie if they play scissors (continuing to counter my previous moves). This is a calculated risk that balances pattern recognition with psychological gameplay.