Since the opponent played rock in round 1, there's a decent chance they'll play rock again, especially as a lower-skilled player who might rely on simple strategies. Even if they try to be unpredictable and switch to paper, I would tie rather than lose. If they switch to scissors, I would lose, but this seems less likely based on common RPS patterns where players often repeat moves or cycle through in order (rock→paper→scissors). Playing paper gives me a good chance to win against repeated rock while minimizing risk.